Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3647cb18587352176c2d2f78d4ced80c0a7b6285a86eb02626720f368fb03033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 3,985$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 12c | 2,879$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.08 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,101$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,382$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 10c | 1,095$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,037$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 831.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 742.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 2c | 613.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 3c | 559.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 5c | 395.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 4c | 376.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…17abbacked No | 70c | 348.03$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 10c | 323.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 299.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 4c | 265.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 7c | 229.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 222.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 23c | 215.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 9c | 177.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 159.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 7c | 149.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 137.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 118.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 113.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 104.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fd…4b1dbacked Yes | 29c | 103.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 89.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 81.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 78.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 73.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 63.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 61.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 20c | 57.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 54.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 51.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 50.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 22c | 46.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…20b0backed No | 80c | 40.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb303…c113backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 39.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 76c | 38.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 69c | 37.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…c6f1backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 79c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…df2dbacked No | 75c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.