TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,604 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes19c7,877$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.141,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No80c6,300$5,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.255834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes17c3,886$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.771,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes16c2,754$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.1645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes29c1,473$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.287630.3%23 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c1,409$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.898,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes24c1,257$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3916129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32af…a7c3backed Yes9c1,198$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.033842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes1c1,146$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes25c1,086$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9616724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes27c1,022$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x317c…cda9backed Yes9c788.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c717.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.482,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes27c695.69$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.522,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf65…d214backed Yes8c580.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes25c569.2$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes13c558.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes20c510.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes19c379.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.819022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes18c361.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.688628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No75c348.53$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6347136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c337.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.781,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c328.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No74c323.02$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No74c305$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.81,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes16c280.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes13c279.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No77c266$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes17c249.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4218629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c244.74$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.572,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes8c238.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No70c207.66$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes18c200.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.772035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5436150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes15c196.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes22c183.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9006…db4ebacked No62c174.51$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x846c…a6e0backed Yes7c166.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes28c165$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0315950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes19c163.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.311,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No75c161.32$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c154.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.213,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes20c152.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.691,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No62c144.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9177555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c142$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfa8…f80cbacked Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes21c125$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.79038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c124.55$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.525,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No80c123.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.758458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c115.43$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.042,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes11c111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2135232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes21c107.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes23c101.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes20c100.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf08f…8840backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes12c92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes13c85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No72c82.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes26c80.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2519947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes19c80.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2216220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes19c79.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes34c79.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9255954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No67c77.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7580560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes29c72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.417324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c69.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c69.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes31c68.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No76c63.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe487…7fdbbacked Yes32c63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes19c60.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.255024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes28c58.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.661,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes25c57.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.384533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes20c56.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.437835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51aa…1c27backed Yes19c56.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes30c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baa…647abacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…036fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1618254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No68c47.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes27c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4213852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.089635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.