TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes78c3,091$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.847832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No19c2,950$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.824,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes44c2,907$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No80c2,233$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.811947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.972030%6 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No20c1,453$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.845,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No16c1,354$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.176,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes73c1,148$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.041,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No16c1,061$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.334,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No17c964.75$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.431,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No22c886.73$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.251,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No12c765.65$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.488920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No18c736.17$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.922,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73d…86bebacked Yes18c692.69$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes75c662.28$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.653,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No26c655$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes75c603.46$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.745,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No22c586.46$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.371,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No28c567.08$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1488628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No10c566.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8931319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes45c562$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.8556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes59c542.72$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No30c504.71$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.283,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes21c500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3952,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes59c500$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20439427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5072…460ebacked Yes42c466.94$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No45c449.97$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.154,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No22c441.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c424.44$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes30c422.66$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6816543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes74c409.93$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No80c408.75$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c403.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.875,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes69c399.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes23c391.65$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.7519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No7c363.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No21c355.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No6c348.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.364,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked Yes80c347.2$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.833756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes79c317.39$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.396240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No16c311.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.573,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No25c310.59$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.825175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No17c300.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.11,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes61c300$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes68c292.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2915570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes28c277.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No37c261$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed No17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.516220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No24c247$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.474,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked No16c227.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.318717.2%15 W · 72 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes67c212.95$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.052,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No22c198.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes68c195.46$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed No35c191.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.495733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes67c184.9$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0263538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes17c179.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.222,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No24c177.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes30c168.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.275736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes68c164.87$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes78c160$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes68c159.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes18c159.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.251,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No29c153.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No24c152.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0116550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6254…1e8cbacked Yes66c152.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.031145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes78c149.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes80c146.16$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c145.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.531,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No59c141.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.319038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…c718backed Yes29c136.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.222766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes18c132.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.34117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes77c130.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.061050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No40c125.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.091,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No22c125.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.112,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes75c124.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3713551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No20c123.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1119648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No58c120$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…0f8abacked No75c120$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.742138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes73c120$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No24c117.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.592,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed No29c115.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9219022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No21c111$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3135232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No28c106.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.921,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac36…b1e1backed Yes79c104.47$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.444100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+144.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No14c104.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed No19c103.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes78c102.72$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.16637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No49c101.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9816724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+121.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4145540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2615529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2742547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x891a…1d79backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8171031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.422454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.