NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366740432faa5db00a29f1b97f77d790a232980e56c64eeab2f3f983cf4f21bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 53c | 6,413$3,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.1 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 4,542$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 1,323$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.07 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 57c | 1,009$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 43c | 731.32$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.85 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 531.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 465.6$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 380.68$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 311.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.16 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 287.92$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 261.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 44c | 238.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 52c | 228.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 49c | 213.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 51c | 199.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 173.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…0d12backed Over | 44c | 129$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…92e2backed Under | 56c | 129$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 56c | 122.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 109.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 67.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…d85abacked Under | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…7317backed Over | 44c | 56.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…294fbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…12bdbacked Over | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…adebbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…3faabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-7.5)Nets won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.