NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6469e05182cec8b8ce90ad22308f483dfca5d1251a9b81b8a5803a25ef08ee7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,697 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 53c | 13,397$7,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,296.58 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…9b8abacked Under | 49c | 6,531$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,034$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 3,970$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.86 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 3,068$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.12 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 2,840$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.44 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 2,828$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 49c | 2,445$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,531$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 342.8$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 48c | 205.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 200.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 155.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 141.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 123.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 48c | 122.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Over | 50c | 118.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 219 | 43.4%95 W · 124 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 98.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 64.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 50c | 64.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 50c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 50c | 44.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 49c | 38.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Over | 50c | 35.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 52c | 23.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 272 | 46.7%127 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…d38abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-7.5)Nets won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.