TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,873 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Nets50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00011955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat50c47,890$24,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,732.8460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Heat52c39,931$20,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,166.7948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nets50c37,193$18,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,596.3529650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Nets48c24,000$11,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,519.971,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat52c23,103$11,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,116.141,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Heat52c20,473$10,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,827.2319954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Heat50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets48c17,241$8,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,244.732,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nets49c16,360$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,016.492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets49c13,138$6,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,384.074,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e4…ca67backed Nets48c12,908$6,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,196333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nets48c10,937$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Nets49c10,473$5,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,131.7338251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets48c9,832$4,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,715.424,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Heat51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9220352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Nets48c8,778$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.5845850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nets49c8,688$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.231,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat51c8,209$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,022.411,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Nets48c7,917$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Heat52c7,692$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.319741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Heat52c5,956$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.884742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.231,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets48c5,191$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Nets50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Nets48c4,817$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.130446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Nets49c4,063$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Heat50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00014766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Heat53c3,767$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.398361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Heat53c3,279$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.132,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat53c3,028$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.31,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Heat50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Heat53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1956453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Heat55c2,673$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.781,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Heat51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.9948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nets48c2,483$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.92,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Heat51c2,257$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.9437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets48c2,077$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Heat50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.0157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Nets50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008158%47 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Heat51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7816640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Heat52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0817940.2%72 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Nets50c1,912$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Nets49c1,900$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93144252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets48c1,878$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.513,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nets49c1,695$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.632,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Nets51c1,490$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.949852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets48c1,454$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.324,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Nets44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52814152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Nets49c1,120$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat51c1,005$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.474,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Nets48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Nets50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Heat51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49021139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Nets50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Nets48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Heat53c960$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.22128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Heat51c951.22$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.4141947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Nets48c947.59$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.859343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Nets49c703.83$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.241,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Heat52c584.42$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.5226048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa535…6b04backed Heat44c568.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.45825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Heat53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0411142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Heat50c560$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Heat52c528.85$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Heat50c416.73$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3328842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0972…9d1ebacked Nets51c408.16$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-58.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Nets50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Nets50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Heat51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1614059.3%83 W · 57 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Heat52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6222447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Heat53c380$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.620846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Heat52c326.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9249246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Nets49c317.63$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.011,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Heat51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14732450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Heat45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16516943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Nets47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Nets50c287.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5623850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Heat52c264.01$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.726439.1%25 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Heat53c259.7$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0643544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Heat52c255.33$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8214053.6%75 W · 65 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92bb…048dbacked Heat50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Nets47c243.21$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3122746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf245…746bbacked Heat57c224.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9920655.3%114 W · 92 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Heat53c224.92$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7114155.3%78 W · 63 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Heat53c212.76$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Heat53c212.25$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7676250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets54c201.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.083,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Heat51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9836643.2%158 W · 208 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Heat51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9922850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Heat51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9861957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Heat53c198.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1121743.8%95 W · 122 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Nets51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Heat52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Heat52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3110645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Heat52c191.21$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7814466%95 W · 49 L+17.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.