NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dbf107ae1336bbd5ca891e26b199877b877f73350ddfc9237aa5c41551c9f7a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Over	46c	19,008$8,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,264.29	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	52c	14,327$7,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,414.61	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	48c	12,674$6,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,611.3	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f6…4535backed Over	52c	8,142$4,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,911.26	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under	54c	5,433$2,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,934	304	46.7%142 W · 162 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	48c	5,156$2,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,474.67	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under	50c	4,790$2,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,395	435	42.8%186 W · 249 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under	53c	3,208$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	389	46%179 W · 210 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	2,812$1,492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,491.86	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	49c	2,500$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,269.98	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under	54c	1,922$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038	219	43.4%95 W · 124 L	-12.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	47c	1,698$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$892.88	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Under	51c	1,569$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	47c	1,507$712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$794.19	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x955f…2a6fbacked Over	51c	1,250$638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612.68	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	53c	1,206$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Under	54c	1,194$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.62	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under	53c	1,170$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	331	46.2%153 W · 178 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over	46c	1,087$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.96	154	50.6%78 W · 76 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Under	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.25	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under	50c	844.44$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.22	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	54c	811.14$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Over	46c	751$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.54	544	43%234 W · 310 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	47c	637$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.75	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Under	49c	600$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	54c	528.08$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.6	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	53c	527.37$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.41	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	47c	398.12$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	54c	370$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.6	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa913…e855backed Under	30c	285.98$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.79	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under	53c	283.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	54c	277.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under	48c	237.92$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.2	84	45.2%38 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	47c	221.87$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.14	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under	53c	211.88$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.12	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	73c	209.01$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.46	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b57…3149backed Over	51c	208.8$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…a5cbbacked Under	50c	208.8$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	49c	204$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.96	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Over	50c	198$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over	47c	184.88$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.14	163	38.7%63 W · 100 L	-11.4wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	54c	162.65$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.83	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Under	51c	160$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.4	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-9.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	49c	144.22$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.59	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	69c	133.78$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.5	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	47c	125.11$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.02	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	49c	122.44$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	48c	116.4$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.53	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under	55c	112.12$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.67	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	394	35.3%139 W · 255 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ef1…c205backed Under	20c	97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	52c	88$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Over	52c	80.77$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.77	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e9…d62abacked Over	47c	70.7$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.47	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	53c	51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	952	60.2%573 W · 379 L	+37.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a50…09f4backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	48c	49.41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.75	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	48c	46.73$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Under	54c	44.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf6…2971backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	33	69.7%23 W · 10 L	+4.7wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc816…4b74backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Over	48c	38.03$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.92	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…e914backed Over	47c	36.98$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Under	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf986…6833backed Under	49c	22.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	98	50%49 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Under	51c	21.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	219	48.9%107 W · 112 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6a…d38abacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5this page
1H Spread: Heat (-7.5)Nets won
Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Nets vs. HeatHeat won
Nets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Over won
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Over won
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event