MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36897f4ca3bdd7ff8e73441b5e7a3205ab18fe0226662465195714fde4a1d2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 5,426$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 4,125$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 2,102$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,613$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 798$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.69 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 555.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 452.9$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 408.82$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 254.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Cincinnati Reds | 8c | 128.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 86.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 59.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 42.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 40.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 39.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 36.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.