MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60f84a4c09d6ac2f2a230dd3c53cf1bffb37e6b8055eec38ceb7033df2f1fb0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 21,749$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,249.41 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 9,600$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240.09 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 8,655$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,314.67 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 6,200$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,070.48 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,617$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 1,553$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,426$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.16 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 1,204$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,148$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.44 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,136$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 1,025$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 974.88$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.92 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 704.55$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 703.34$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.61 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 598.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 428.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 346$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 299$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 297.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 278.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 274.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.21 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 193.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 170.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 170.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 170.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 108$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 51.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 46.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 40.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 39.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 30.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…4066backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…6a52backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…8ab2backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bd83backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…19fcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.