MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6c470837852d217742d203baa9cbadc0c111bbca9fe0935fd4d5c07fd8f59c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 3,880$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 3,757$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 39c | 2,564$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.37 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 2,121$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.86 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.23 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 61c | 1,747$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 1,359$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 61c | 1,205$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 41c | 1,194$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.56 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 39c | 890.98$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.5 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 804.08$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 61c | 557.38$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 389$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 39c | 288$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 258.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 39c | 257.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 60c | 221.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 192.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 46c | 172.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 139.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 61c | 131.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 96.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 96.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 89.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 60c | 78.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 54c | 73.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 49c | 55.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 48.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 32c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 58c | 37.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 35.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 43c | 30.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 27.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 60c | 23.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d3…b26cbacked Over | 54c | 20.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.