MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x991820d6371a10a68e30a970979182f7e7aa149b7a49c1557a3db48630bae9a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 12,547$6,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,148.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 9,025$4,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.89 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 5,268$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 4,306$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.94 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 3,530$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 53c | 3,453$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.53 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 53c | 2,919$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.84 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 2,476$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.61 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 2,447$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.16 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 1,503$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.29 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 1,461$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.1 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 57c | 1,311$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.84 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 1,149$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.75 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.01 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…248bbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 992.02$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.52 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 895.46$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.1 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 799.98$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 51c | 674.85$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.26 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 49c | 529$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.21 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 512.86$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.17 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 503.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.68 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 414.14$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 65c | 335.11$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 48c | 316.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 244.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 226$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 224.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 209.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 55c | 179.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 47c | 175.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 43c | 164.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…3a0cbacked Over | 49c | 148.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Over | 60c | 143.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 49c | 129.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…991dbacked Under | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 109$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 91.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 83.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Under | 45c | 68.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 49c | 57.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…102cbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 49.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Over | 49c | 33.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 51c | 26.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 54c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…faf1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.