MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49fcfb72d4b549a05ab02c76efc90efae9b8eb1a6dad7e4d808baa3404fb5d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 26c | 1,087$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.97 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 529.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 494.26$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 76c | 474.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 22c | 347.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 69c | 328.05$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 23c | 254.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 19c | 187.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 77c | 182.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 78c | 167.82$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 20c | 166$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 21c | 156.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 20c | 149.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 142.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 28c | 121.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Under | 17c | 93.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Under | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 19c | 62.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 77c | 58.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 77c | 54.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 24c | 45.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 77c | 43.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.