Earnings · resolved market
Will anyone say "Stargate" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369c0965b5749e9cfc2b2ec51d0a5fadba60c6ff105c26fe543108b6f9751940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 336$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 259$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 66c | 141$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 64c | 113.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 35c | 106.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 91.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 68c | 58.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 40.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 63c | 40.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 66c | 26.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…98c2backed Yes | 45c | 22.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Stargate" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?this page
- Will anyone say "Cloud" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Copilot" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Cybersecurity" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?No won
- Will anyone say "LinkedIn" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "M365" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "OpenAI" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Server" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Teams" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.