Earnings · resolved market
Will anyone say "Cybersecurity" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0666c54f529b3e9258c4c3777688ee06acc05b769d1edea5c93fc06cf49850f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 67c | 515.02$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 36c | 334.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…ad32backed Yes | 64c | 310.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 31c | 177.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 63c | 165$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 71c | 141.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 42c | 119.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 54c | 92.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 23c | 84.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 53c | 74.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Cybersecurity" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?this page
- Will anyone say "Cloud" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Copilot" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "LinkedIn" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "M365" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "OpenAI" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Server" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Stargate" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?No won
- Will anyone say "Teams" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.