Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e7d33d26439299381ff4f2a9df2ba0012b513857f7b40ca565f67b8626ff53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 74c | 1,262$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.78 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 408.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 359.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 306.86$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 73c | 279.56$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 10c | 230.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 213.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 173.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 172.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 146$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 140.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 13c | 139.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 21c | 125.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 34c | 125.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 53c | 116.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 110.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 99.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 48c | 93.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 36c | 88.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 31c | 85.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 84.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 31c | 83.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 78.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 78.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 72.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 27c | 66.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 21c | 62.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 61.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 53c | 60.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 59.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…fb81backed No | 34c | 50.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 48.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 48.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 45.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 54c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 30.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…8525backed Yes | 65c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 57c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.