TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c289.93$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.475,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No36c219.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7966543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes32c205.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4718650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No15c199.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c194.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No79c175.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes21c163.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5235325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c158$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes25c157.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0338930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes45c146.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.815940.3%64 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No49c142.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No33c141.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.614,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c140.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.426,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes53c138.59$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.691,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c136.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.056219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c135$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.235,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c131.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.458,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No46c128.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.852,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c128.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.594,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No78c127.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes25c125.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.734935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes20c117.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.961,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes18c116.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1917859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes20c110.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.721233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes13c110.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.581,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c108.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No17c106.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5122550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes19c106.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+166.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes30c100.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3329536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes19c88.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes28c84.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.922227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe37c…eb1fbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No44c80.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.392,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b2…fb81backed No51c78.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x599c…e29bbacked Yes20c77.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.372842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes22c77.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9529219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes20c75.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c71.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes30c71.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.793,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No29c70.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a1b…e8d0backed No77c68.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.171656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes20c67.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.244,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No36c66.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.592,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes39c63.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5953258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No40c62.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.022,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c60.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No39c58.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.882,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c57.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No36c55.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.041,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes30c52.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6619427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes37c50.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5214660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes20c50.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.066016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes77c45.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.452,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c45.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.252,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf685…5ec9backed Yes23c43.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.362572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes50c42.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.231,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…5961backed Yes46c39.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.047361.6%45 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c38.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No73c37.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No72c34.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ca…1ec7backed No52c33.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.421656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed No75c32.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6310547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4b…0ffbbacked Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.416937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No73c29.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.211,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes71c27.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.872,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No77c27.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.251,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes78c25.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7942061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No55c24.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…6333backed Yes51c24.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0916…9ad0backed Yes66c24.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.341770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes68c24.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.732157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes77c23.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.572,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No78c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3849551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes52c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x554e…b670backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No55c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No56c19.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.078073.8%59 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb21f…cf00backed No57c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes56c17.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8510750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No56c17.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.139262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No72c17.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3424164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No80c15.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0662275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.