Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88fd3d0fb536e2a593c1eb75ec13c838ffb4193cf77b0d68f820f803b1d09bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 289.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 219.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 32c | 205.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 199.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 194.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 21c | 163.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 157.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 146.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 142.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 141.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 140.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 138.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 136.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 135$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 131.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 128.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 128.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 127.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 125.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 117.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 18c | 116.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 20c | 110.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 110.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 108.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 17c | 106.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 19c | 106.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 88.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…eb1fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 80.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…fb81backed No | 51c | 78.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 20c | 77.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 22c | 77.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 75.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 71.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 71.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 70.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 77c | 68.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 67.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 66.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 39c | 63.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 62.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 60.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 58.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 55.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 30c | 52.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 37c | 50.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 50.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 45.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 45.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed Yes | 23c | 43.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 42.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 46c | 39.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 37.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 72c | 34.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed No | 52c | 33.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 75c | 32.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…0ffbbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 29.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…6333backed Yes | 51c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed Yes | 66c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 68c | 24.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 56c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf00backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.