Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb2aab9bb97d0961dbe8808379f65832ebe878a0a07d13051a647be11270693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 8c | 257.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 44c | 209.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 58c | 196.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 23c | 195.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 25c | 177.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 166.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 161.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 155.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8f04backed Yes | 24c | 152.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 138.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 128.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 118.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 24c | 118.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 109.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 105.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 97.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 89.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 85.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 60.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 58.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 55c | 57.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 29c | 57.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 55.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 49.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 46.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 41.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…eb1fbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 40.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 75c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed Yes | 64c | 24.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 23.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 74c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 73c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.