Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3722ebe27e65bfd68fd774f96c774e61461e2d605c6d1e94a6eb0918b65605b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Dzumhur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Cerundolo | 80c | 4,987$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.41 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Dzumhur | 20c | 3,619$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.8 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dzumhur | 19c | 1,276$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Dzumhur | 11c | 800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Dzumhur | 20c | 776$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Dzumhur | 11c | 738.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Dzumhur | 25c | 609.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Dzumhur | 20c | 608.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cerundolo | 74c | 547.45$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Cerundolo | 79c | 499.98$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo | 78c | 471.19$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f13…8c78backed Dzumhur | 20c | 415.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Dzumhur | 37c | 402.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cerundolo | 79c | 394.47$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…5466backed Dzumhur | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…e2fcbacked Dzumhur | 21c | 285.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Dzumhur | 4c | 264.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo | 70c | 257.17$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Dzumhur | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Dzumhur | 22c | 247.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Dzumhur | 26c | 240.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Dzumhur | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…c665backed Dzumhur | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Dzumhur | 6c | 202.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Dzumhur | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Cerundolo | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Dzumhur | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dzumhur | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…6e2bbacked Cerundolo | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Dzumhur | 20c | 146.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Cerundolo | 70c | 142.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Dzumhur | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Cerundolo | 78c | 136.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…f3b1backed Cerundolo | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…908abacked Dzumhur | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 587 | 53.7%315 W · 272 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Cerundolo | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Dzumhur | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Dzumhur | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Cerundolo | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Dzumhur | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Cerundolo | 80c | 87.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Cerundolo | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…b175backed Cerundolo | 79c | 69.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Cerundolo | 69c | 62.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Dzumhur | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Dzumhur | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked Cerundolo | 71c | 50.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Cerundolo | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dzumhur | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dzumhur | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Cerundolo | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Dzumhur | 30c | 44.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…f81abacked Cerundolo | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Cerundolo | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Cerundolo | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2538…b975backed Cerundolo | 80c | 15.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7ddabacked Cerundolo | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…2982backed Cerundolo | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhurthis page
- Cerundolo vs. Dzumhur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs DzumhurCerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)Cerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Dzumhur (+2.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.