Earnings · resolved market
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37ecaec524dfa449405d15ea13102316601816b616fec6b6d2b8911dc53b56e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 9c | 2,282$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 1,415$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 15c | 1,347$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 12c | 683.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 598.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 597.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 15c | 565.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 9c | 480.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 432.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 14c | 421.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…bc4ebacked No | 10c | 390.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…2d33backed No | 19c | 372$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 22c | 357.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 15c | 348.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 13c | 305.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 80c | 302$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 18c | 267.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 13c | 249.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 79c | 245.55$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 10c | 219.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 199.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 11c | 192.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…9b11backed No | 40c | 150.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…fe46backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…54a3backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 78c | 145.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 17c | 138.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…3dc4backed No | 17c | 120.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…4d79backed No | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed No | 17c | 119.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 17c | 117.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…afe1backed No | 17c | 115.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 13c | 106.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 105.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +132%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 12c | 91.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 81.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…dbe0backed No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 77c | 55.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 47.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 75c | 37.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…c27abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.