TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: GenOne vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HEROIC Academyof GenOne, HEROIC Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31d4…a7abbacked GenOne47c4,602$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.7116447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked GenOne70c4,078$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.115,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked GenOne55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92575056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked HEROIC Academy52c3,302$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.347,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed HEROIC Academy42c2,919$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.4978043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked GenOne69c2,603$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.1484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked HEROIC Academy52c2,516$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.823,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed HEROIC Academy45c2,152$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.434568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked HEROIC Academy29c1,905$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.6618341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed HEROIC Academy36c1,753$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.4920554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked GenOne52c1,652$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.2336253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked HEROIC Academy42c1,625$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.971,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b07…be53backed GenOne55c1,498$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HEROIC Academy40c1,438$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.055,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked HEROIC Academy49c1,347$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.5822534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed HEROIC Academy43c1,195$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.546,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed GenOne59c1,176$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.757641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed HEROIC Academy33c1,145$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.2233044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked HEROIC Academy48c1,073$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.5226037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HEROIC Academy32c1,060$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.925,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed GenOne55c1,010$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.6449646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa960…9407backed GenOne55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked HEROIC Academy29c996.62$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.531,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed GenOne64c942.4$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.8324457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed GenOne67c799.92$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.959554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed GenOne71c709.13$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.8125845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed GenOne55c699.97$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9827647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed GenOne69c688.09$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.1913732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed HEROIC Academy52c613.86$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.7453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked HEROIC Academy40c607.68$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.5113234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed GenOne52c578.03$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.91,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked GenOne48c563.76$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6117240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed HEROIC Academy45c539.1$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.381,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed HEROIC Academy32c512.05$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.414,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed HEROIC Academy32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3406154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed HEROIC Academy42c459.5$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.494,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed GenOne53c415.13$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0245465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed HEROIC Academy43c412.63$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.451,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed GenOne65c401.57$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8539248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd224…8812backed HEROIC Academy28c386.46$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked GenOne22c364.23$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed GenOne48c358.44$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed HEROIC Academy42c355.14$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.552,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked HEROIC Academy75c324.79$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.012,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07b…b7c9backed HEROIC Academy53c317.64$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2914447.9%69 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed HEROIC Academy31c316.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.2760838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed GenOne9c315.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3614929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed GenOne57c314.59$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0164854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed HEROIC Academy31c309.23$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3713238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe107…8966backed HEROIC Academy32c300.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.363754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed GenOne49c281.74$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.771,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked HEROIC Academy54c277.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4834147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked HEROIC Academy41c268.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.181,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed HEROIC Academy43c264.91$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.322,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked GenOne51c263.59$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4320358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked GenOne66c262.53$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.272,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa2…40a3backed GenOne47c260$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked HEROIC Academy35c255.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1661,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed GenOne47c253$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed HEROIC Academy40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1509736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b89…783bbacked GenOne72c244$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed GenOne70c239.31$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5219850.5%100 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked HEROIC Academy57c237.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5735449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed GenOne56c233.08$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3657358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked GenOne69c214.71$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1733060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked HEROIC Academy60c213.72$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.238942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed GenOne44c213.64$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9443455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed GenOne55c212.94$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.715358.2%89 W · 64 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed HEROIC Academy61c210.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9617759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked HEROIC Academy54c205.48$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.682,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked HEROIC Academy57c204.58$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.793,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed HEROIC Academy49c202.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.419346.2%43 W · 50 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked HEROIC Academy48c201.67$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.878844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab5…aa48backed HEROIC Academy61c186.97$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9927…f135backed HEROIC Academy42c185.03$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.85377.4%41 W · 12 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked GenOne66c183.96$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.412055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed GenOne45c178.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.569732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed GenOne65c175.27$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1955950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed GenOne55c174.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2432951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed HEROIC Academy54c160.3$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.431,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked GenOne53c159.15$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.956460.9%39 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed HEROIC Academy31c158.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.141,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed GenOne66c151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6625252.8%133 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked HEROIC Academy30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1057625%19 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked HEROIC Academy30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10570038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fad…9a22backed GenOne72c149.45$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed GenOne60c145.88$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8412954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270f…eb5ebacked GenOne68c142.24$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.158058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb997…faacbacked GenOne53c140.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9420553.2%109 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…08fbbacked HEROIC Academy53c137.02$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed HEROIC Academy63c132.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.81,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb583…939ebacked GenOne49c127.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.533735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed HEROIC Academy45c120.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.242,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…b819backed GenOne48c119.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1514853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf232…5ff0backed HEROIC Academy33c119.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.352540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked GenOne34c112.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1970%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed GenOne67c110$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.691,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed HEROIC Academy45c109.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3579951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed HEROIC Academy45c109.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3573948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed HEROIC Academy45c109.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.342740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.