TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,762 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under55c2,260$1,235 inWon+$1,025.0911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Over1c2,000$16 inLost-$15.529636.5%35 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over65c1,086$704 inLost-$703.964,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under64c1,000$640 inWon+$3604,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under57c1,000$570 inWon+$43011464%73 W · 41 L+12.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over43c949.69$409 inLost-$408.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over36c850$306 inLost-$3068,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over28c220.91$62 inLost-$61.919,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc83…fdd4backed Over28c205.04$57 inLost-$57.362740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over28c205.04$57 inLost-$57.366552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked Over28c204.86$57 inLost-$57.365543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d8…d049backed Under44c90.91$40 inWon+$50.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over29c36.85$11 inLost-$10.623,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over40c31.38$13 inLost-$12.551,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.