MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa744fabfa9665eaf647310d0b3957ad877826191d9dc896a43ea52f597870d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 13,540$6,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,462.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 55c | 8,827$4,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,854.78 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 5,245$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 55c | 4,535$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 3,134$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.62 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 2,495$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 55c | 2,222$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 43c | 1,710$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 1,682$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 1,359$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 45c | 1,266$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.5 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 64c | 1,185$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…325bbacked Under | 56c | 873.61$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 792$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 45c | 777$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.35 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 45c | 625$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 585$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 556.43$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 554.08$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 40c | 339.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 23c | 304.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…9a1bbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 232.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 204$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 41c | 156.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 41c | 156.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 35c | 123.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 119.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 95.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 78.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Under | 56c | 66.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 59c | 64.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 58c | 56.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…bef9backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 56c | 32.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 31.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 29.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd5…6a99backed Under | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.