TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,397 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae5c…5df7backed Cleveland Guardians58c7,843$4,549 inLost-$4,548.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds42c7,149$3,003 inWon+$4,146.3310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…20e7backed Cleveland Guardians56c1,729$968 inLost-$968.53053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds44c1,581$698 inWon+$882.3511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Cincinnati Reds44c538$235 inWon+$302.882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds74c449.24$330 inWon+$118.978,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cleveland Guardians26c442.81$115 inLost-$115.1331038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds71c149$106 inWon+$43.212,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians53c136.09$72 inLost-$72.134,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds46c135$63 inWon+$72.34,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f7…9385backed Cleveland Guardians47c106.25$50 inLost-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians19c95$18 inLost-$17.648,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds53c84.77$45 inWon+$39.579,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds77c42.53$33 inWon+$9.7855645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.