MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f75248596ddfb307d8031e083a4532d69e0ca17f34ce38f717ebfdcc5d48790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 11c | 3,162$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 1,528$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 58c | 987.79$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.66 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 785.09$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 375.87$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 37c | 358$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 23c | 267.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 261.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 223$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Over | 68c | 147.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 37c | 142.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 43c | 127.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 93.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 88.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 64c | 82.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Over | 64c | 77.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 58c | 60.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 43c | 60.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Over | 61c | 58.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 39c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Over | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.