MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a50d5d14dca58dc7645299330f6fbff2fa8bffcb22f43b7a9785ceb70b0fa74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 2,737$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 2,351$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 1,955$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 1,905$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 1,531$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,252$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.79 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 810.27$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.01 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 705.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 690.72$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 611$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 382.1$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 379.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 347.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 265.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 233.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 117.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 75.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 72.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 61.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 50.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 38.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 37.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 36.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 20.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…581bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.