MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19781c9eb8127ab95c4e955e1b9857ceb1c60b2aa135f12721e1ecc911dea58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 48c | 16,956$8,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,817.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 51c | 14,600$7,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,479 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 52c | 11,917$6,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,176.52 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 50c | 4,200$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…1dccbacked Yes | 49c | 2,561$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Yes | 49c | 983.74$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.71 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 929.45$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 52c | 764.68$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 65c | 709.25$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.53 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 638.69$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 50c | 548.61$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 50c | 447$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked No | 51c | 424.49$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.05 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 50c | 414.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 49c | 340$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 306.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Yes | 52c | 253.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Yes | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…525fbacked Yes | 52c | 194.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Yes | 52c | 194.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 167.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 154$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed No | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 49c | 91.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 50c | 90.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…14cebacked No | 49c | 80.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Yes | 52c | 70.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 52c | 57.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 49c | 57.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed No | 49c | 55.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 52c | 55.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 49c | 41.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.