TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hanwha Life Esportsof Hanwha Life Esports, DN SOOPers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$312,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$367,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc75a…1ab2backed DN SOOPers0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked DN SOOPers13c42,777$5,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,597.2731328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed DN SOOPers13c34,513$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.718447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed DN SOOPers2c13,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.68684.4%3 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-61%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Hanwha Life Esports65c7,600$4,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.4259450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…63f9backed DN SOOPers13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6503935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf28…db5dbacked DN SOOPers6c3,498$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008259.8%49 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DN SOOPers37c3,325$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.571,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked DN SOOPers15c3,232$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Hanwha Life Esports58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9967552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DN SOOPers18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.991,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed Hanwha Life Esports78c2,481$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.9112652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN SOOPers24c2,056$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.293,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Hanwha Life Esports79c2,041$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.2774250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed DN SOOPers19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hanwha Life Esports78c1,966$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.821,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed DN SOOPers41c1,590$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65016451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed DN SOOPers16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed DN SOOPers20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed DN SOOPers42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed DN SOOPers51c1,492$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.4512450%62 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked DN SOOPers15c1,399$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada4…c344backed DN SOOPers19c1,336$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25512655.6%70 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked DN SOOPers11c1,329$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.961,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b14…5022backed Hanwha Life Esports75c1,322$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.314663%29 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN SOOPers18c1,310$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.611,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Hanwha Life Esports73c1,305$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.872,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed DN SOOPers23c1,284$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2957628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4384…175fbacked DN SOOPers1c1,207$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed DN SOOPers2c1,102$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed DN SOOPers16c1,101$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.081,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fef…8c79backed DN SOOPers46c1,076$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7626246.9%123 W · 139 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked DN SOOPers14c1,069$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6675942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Hanwha Life Esports38c1,052$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.223046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed DN SOOPers17c1,043$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1779115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed DN SOOPers14c1,040$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.61,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DN SOOPers14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed DN SOOPers15c992.1$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8240232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DN SOOPers20c906.02$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.022,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x845a…37acbacked DN SOOPers7c900$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.33per pick12cpaid+192.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed DN SOOPers11c899.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Hanwha Life Esports76c872.15$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7967553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked DN SOOPers15c836.86$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.049227.2%25 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DN SOOPers7c799.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed DN SOOPers19c776.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3826661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked DN SOOPers8c774$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.665322.6%12 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed DN SOOPers19c720.36$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.871,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7db…6129backed DN SOOPers7c714.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked DN SOOPers14c702$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2844743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed DN SOOPers30c701$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9246841.7%195 W · 273 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed DN SOOPers7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4223943.1%103 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Hanwha Life Esports73c592$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.183,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed DN SOOPers37c577.67$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed DN SOOPers12c556.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Hanwha Life Esports80c511.25$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2546257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed DN SOOPers20c510$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed DN SOOPers20c504$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.368718.4%16 W · 71 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed DN SOOPers16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked DN SOOPers30c494.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15026844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed DN SOOPers30c468.86$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9310450%52 W · 52 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed DN SOOPers18c447$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4118116%29 W · 152 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked DN SOOPers18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.820836.1%75 W · 133 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Hanwha Life Esports80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802387%20 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+37.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed DN SOOPers26c400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10535048%168 W · 182 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed DN SOOPers22c400$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8738743.9%170 W · 217 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x809f…b1c0backed DN SOOPers6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed DN SOOPers15c373.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5638835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked DN SOOPers14c369.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.836040.6%146 W · 214 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Hanwha Life Esports65c351$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.011,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Hanwha Life Esports53c350$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7594144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa416…63f4backed DN SOOPers9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045042.2%190 W · 260 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked DN SOOPers16c312.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+91.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed DN SOOPers32c310.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039450.3%198 W · 196 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed DN SOOPers20c305.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6641743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed DN SOOPers14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427532%24 W · 51 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked DN SOOPers25c300$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7429942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked DN SOOPers5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Hanwha Life Esports66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10294237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed DN SOOPers17c294$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021622.7%49 W · 167 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Hanwha Life Esports79c287.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4833748.4%163 W · 174 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed DN SOOPers18c286$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6649739.4%196 W · 301 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…4500backed DN SOOPers16c275.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7412727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed DN SOOPers18c275.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6543040.9%176 W · 254 L-1.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed DN SOOPers40c264.95$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Hanwha Life Esports76c263.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3313171%93 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Hanwha Life Esports66c262.28$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.631,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed DN SOOPers19c240$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.634235.7%122 W · 220 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed DN SOOPers21c235.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed DN SOOPers17c232.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.251,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked DN SOOPers21c232.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5082650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DN SOOPers14c230$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed DN SOOPers8c220.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7857947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed DN SOOPers6c206.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.37621.6%1 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…999bbacked Hanwha Life Esports70c205$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.54057.5%23 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed DN SOOPers18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.459740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb890…9847backed DN SOOPers14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f2…3bc2backed DN SOOPers15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053047.5%252 W · 278 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Hanwha Life Esports78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4438659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked DN SOOPers24c199.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4960538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked DN SOOPers15c199.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044047.5%209 W · 231 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.