Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ef1acf73bf7700837ab674e3f79ea9475e6117677c004e4e621943c6819109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,027$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.69 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 995.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 730.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 6c | 549.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 80c | 465.53$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 391.35$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 33c | 365.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 338.51$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 68c | 310.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 241.18$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 239.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 36c | 238.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 235.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 45c | 224.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 219.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…8c15backed Yes | 48c | 210.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 34c | 207.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 202.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 201.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 34c | 162.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 12c | 149.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 149.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e4…1dbabacked Yes | 37c | 148.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 57c | 143$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 41c | 136.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 29c | 130.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 30c | 127.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 34c | 127.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 74c | 127.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 59c | 127.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 33c | 122.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 120.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 113.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 110.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 31c | 108.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 30c | 105.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 39c | 102.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 66c | 97.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 94.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 65c | 91.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 34c | 84.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…cb2fbacked Yes | 37c | 81.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 81.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked No | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 68.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…7e1ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 69c | 54.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 65c | 54.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 54.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 49.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…691abacked No | 65c | 46.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 35c | 40.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 40.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 39.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 60c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 28.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 27.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 63c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 60c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 71c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 72c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.