Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46aaf7d53d9fd65178ef57610155fc3f5d0ef57e1c35d36bfe579b8a0140ac5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 17c | 2,752$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.56 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 2c | 1,509$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked No | 2c | 1,129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed No | 71c | 1,113$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,095$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 27c | 817.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.62 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 806.26$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 16c | 773.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.63 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 713.15$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 27c | 699.9$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.71 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 696.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 26c | 567.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 552.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 484.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 450.13$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 399.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.97 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 380.58$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 77c | 346.09$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 302.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 63c | 297.89$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 16c | 293.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 292.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.88 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 286.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 26c | 264.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 260.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 23c | 253.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 252.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 251.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.68 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 246.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 241.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 33c | 228.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 217.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 35c | 201.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 200.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 196$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 8c | 195.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 186.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 16c | 183.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 20c | 182.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 9c | 181.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.07 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 15c | 180.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 14c | 178.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 6c | 165.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 149.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 18c | 142.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 127.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 122.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 19c | 122.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 9c | 118.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 79c | 115.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 114.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 74c | 107.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 11c | 96.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked Yes | 13c | 85.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 78.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 67c | 76.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 56c | 73.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 32c | 62.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 31c | 58.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 20c | 53.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 22c | 49.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 33c | 45.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 23c | 43.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 51c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 69c | 18.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.