Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01343cf7fcda8f0e538b5a34259d2208493b52606264bf0758402dd298243b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 2c | 2,254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,707$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.59 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 719.11$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 77c | 651.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 586.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 533$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 3c | 502.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…8c15backed Yes | 42c | 474.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 444.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 29c | 402.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 360.05$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 338.72$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 27c | 331$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 275.67$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 257.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 250.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 241.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 238.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 235.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 228.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 227.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 42c | 218.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 199.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 9c | 192.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 186.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 159.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 40c | 155.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 69c | 141.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 141$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 8c | 137.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 129.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 21c | 128.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 28c | 121.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 113.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 106.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 68c | 100.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 26c | 97.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 52c | 95.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 74c | 94.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 77.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 75.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…89cebacked Yes | 16c | 73.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 30c | 65.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 52c | 61.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 50.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 25c | 49.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…0cfdbacked No | 61c | 48.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…4f78backed Yes | 42c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 40.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 34c | 40.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…d969backed Yes | 38c | 39.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 41c | 38.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed Yes | 41c | 37.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…ab84backed Yes | 42c | 36.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…5099backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 31.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 39c | 29.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 68c | 28.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13c…d9dbbacked No | 61c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed No | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 63c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 78c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 16.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.