Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f76d6cfecb8f22c8a9a8431520ec031bae23562ec67e8736bd7f8147e59e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 3,625$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.07 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 71c | 2,888$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.52 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 73c | 1,361$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.07 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 1,007$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 42c | 999.72$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.88 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 867.37$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.84 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 22c | 820$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 601.56$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.19 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 70c | 357$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 70c | 338.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 12c | 266$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 174.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 69c | 171.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 30c | 150.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 70c | 150.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…f4b0backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 46c | 95.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 94.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 54c | 92.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 28c | 90.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 72c | 83.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 24c | 79.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Over | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 29c | 36.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked Under | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 30c | 33.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…16c7backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…63d7backed Under | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 71c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.