UFC · resolved market
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390a698f98615d70717c3b68c2b8d89a78a1e62f0ab70969891cf48f181cf331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 75c | 2,078$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.01 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 79c | 1,105$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.98 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…fcc5backed Yes | 25c | 1,006$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 78c | 832.22$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…7fbdbacked Yes | 22c | 552.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 78c | 499.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 78c | 397.56$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085c…8ffdbacked Yes | 26c | 344.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 75c | 336.23$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…198fbacked Yes | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 77c | 332.03$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 79c | 272.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 251.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…89fbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…da65backed Yes | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…3b65backed Yes | 26c | 207.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…a879backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…dec3backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 26c | 193$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…faa3backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…13adbacked Yes | 21c | 127.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 23c | 122.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…6d0ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe01e…db1fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6567…05fabacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…65cdbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6b…bef4backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94d…b8dabacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…ead4backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 75.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…44febacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…147fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Yes | 22c | 67.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…36c6backed Yes | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…7dd0backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…cad2backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 40.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ff…889dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…1544backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 17.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)Josh Hokit won
- Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.