UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd150675f87e6676a195c3bd389204cdfbe8f18483479639028eabdbba7931815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 4,623$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.58 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 19c | 3,079$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,006$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 10c | 667.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 12c | 552.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4e…6edfbacked Yes | 18c | 531.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…abbbbacked Yes | 20c | 495.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cd…2eedbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 15c | 429$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked No | 78c | 384.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…e9d4backed Yes | 17c | 361.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 15c | 331.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes | 14c | 321.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…0035backed Yes | 17c | 267.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…c9dcbacked Yes | 16c | 254.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 26c | 239.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 155.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…dd67backed Yes | 20c | 152.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…65cebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 14c | 113.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…65cdbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…1544backed Yes | 15c | 99.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…4d1ebacked Yes | 14c | 79.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +59%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…eb66backed Yes | 34c | 74.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…77d9backed Yes | 17c | 69.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…1535backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 77c | 45.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…3992backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed No | 80c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)Josh Hokit won
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.