TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a4e…6edf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst NHL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT2176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+29.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$766Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$765.85
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.43
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.79
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.12
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50.81
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$19.68
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$21.59
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$77.51
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.53
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$22.29
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$202.12
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$23.53
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$32.5
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$29.84
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+150%+$48.85
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.19
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.78
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Manel Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$12.09
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Allan Nascimento · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.89
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.44
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Marcus McGhee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.86
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bruno Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$188.1
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$61.68
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$21.59
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$26.67
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.89
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$458.28
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.19
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$61.36
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk (Middleweight, Main)backed Mosley Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.