UFC · resolved market
O/U 0.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa223da87c39a1853e8ba2da25215619c1a9faf5d1f5110f72f38aa5146191c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 32c | 3,789$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 66c | 1,319$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Over | 69c | 833.33$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 69c | 666.66$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.66 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 72c | 260.64$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Over | 72c | 247.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Over | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 60c | 123.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 90.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Over | 67c | 86.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 61c | 84.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Under | 39c | 77.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…3a56backed Over | 63c | 61.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 31c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Under | 37c | 46.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…e2fabacked Over | 74c | 40.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Over | 63c | 38.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…cd8bbacked Under | 36c | 33.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ea…1c22backed Over | 71c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5501backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5707…9359backed Over | 75c | 30.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 65c | 26.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…437dbacked Over | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 0.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)Josh Hokit won
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.