NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Total Games O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395372c30040379d428e092074629aaa41ba20127c64d75c272ccfa3b52aa931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 5.5of Over 5.5, Under 5.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Over 5.5 | 60c | 1,145$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.85 | 265 | 30.9%82 W · 183 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under 5.5 | 41c | 976.69$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.05 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Under 5.5 | 33c | 721.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under 5.5 | 48c | 703.79$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.12 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over 5.5 | 58c | 609.51$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.09 | 730 | 51.8%378 W · 352 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Over 5.5 | 80c | 548.34$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Over 5.5 | 59c | 534.09$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.03 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Under 5.5 | 40c | 501.37$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…d454backed Over 5.5 | 60c | 452.91$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under 5.5 | 40c | 382.87$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Under 5.5 | 38c | 265.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed Over 5.5 | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Over 5.5 | 68c | 162.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 5.5 | 24c | 153.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 5.5 | 10c | 152.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over 5.5 | 58c | 152.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…22a9backed Over 5.5 | 66c | 147.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Over 5.5 | 58c | 118.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over 5.5 | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Over 5.5 | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Under 5.5 | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under 5.5 | 43c | 96.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…fd37backed Under 5.5 | 27c | 96.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over 5.5 | 49c | 91.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Under 5.5 | 15c | 71.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…e331backed Over 5.5 | 59c | 68.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under 5.5 | 43c | 67.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f96…9dd5backed Over 5.5 | 61c | 64.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d7…d1e3backed Over 5.5 | 77c | 49.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under 5.5 | 45c | 48.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Under 5.5 | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…25acbacked Over 5.5 | 55c | 38.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over 5.5 | 77c | 33.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Over 5.5 | 55c | 32.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +484.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over 5.5 | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…b1a0backed Over 5.5 | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Over 5.5 | 57c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4e03backed Over 5.5 | 61c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…d88abacked Over 5.5 | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over 5.5 | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…3710backed Over 5.5 | 80c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Over 5.5 | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.