Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397ac8b5c861ac87ecfe5bf78a45bc274979e3e21684dec3b46e4445db502ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,738$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 1,175$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 53c | 1,044$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.15 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 284.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 284.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 245.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 230$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 205.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 195.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 185.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 25c | 160.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 140.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 133$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 132.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 118$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 113.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 105.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 46c | 103.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 103.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 49c | 98.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 93.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 29c | 93.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 91.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 64c | 70.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 80c | 69.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 65.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 62.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 58.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 49c | 58.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 35c | 56.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 51.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 50.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 27c | 42.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 40.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 52c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 56c | 36.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 36.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 36.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 34.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 32.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 31.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 39c | 30.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 74c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.