Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397de5ff72a7b179869e7e1b01ed4f09b823957f7c730e03139f718fe5bfe017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 199.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 166.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 44c | 123.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 113.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 47c | 104.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 41c | 100.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 93.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 87.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 67c | 85.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 84.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 78.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 75.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 72.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 57c | 69.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 69.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 64.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 60.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 49c | 59.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 57.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 53.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 71c | 53.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 53.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 53c | 52.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 43c | 51.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Yes | 41c | 51.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 48.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 25c | 44.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 56c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 42c | 41.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 59c | 41.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 40.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 39.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 35.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 34.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 42c | 31.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 63c | 30.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 38c | 30.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…27d0backed Yes | 37c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed Yes | 35c | 28.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 53c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…5dc0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 19.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…7cccbacked No | 63c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked No | 76c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.