Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33cfc8eaf156fc6f3315823b09e92d462ca5418313f42e8a2fc8a14eb1adc7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 214.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 168.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 159.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 123.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 114.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 93.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 89.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 89.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 83.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 42c | 82.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked Yes | 29c | 80.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 77.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 72c | 74.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 72.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439c…17f6backed No | 18c | 69.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 56c | 65.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 35c | 64.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 46c | 63.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 62.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 40c | 62.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 57.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 48.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 43.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 35c | 39.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 38.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 37.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 36.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 35.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 74c | 34.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 59c | 32.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 31.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 29.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 29.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 25.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 60c | 17.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.