Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39979211cd273cada9175bc19dbba7a87d1a9d555872a241313d2145bec1af9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Under | 1c | 24,839$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…db10backed Over | 49c | 14,074$6,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,119.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 8,107$4,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,290.2 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 5,115$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.72 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 1c | 3,960$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 48c | 3,956$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.28 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 3,427$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.94 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 12c | 3,263$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.35 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Under | 2c | 1,833$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 2c | 1,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 337 | 40.4%136 W · 201 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…a596backed Under | 17c | 817.58$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 739.99$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 32c | 701.03$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.71 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 6c | 570.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 199 | 46.7%93 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Under | 24c | 521$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 47c | 514.6$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.18 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 381.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.08 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 15c | 363.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 362 | 35.9%130 W · 232 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Over | 9c | 214.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 17c | 189.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 53c | 168.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 48c | 158.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 11c | 133.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb724…577dbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 51c | 96.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 16c | 79.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Under | 30c | 67.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 55c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 429 | 52%223 W · 206 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Senegal (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Senegal won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Senegal won
- United States vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Over won
- United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.