MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39a8fdad4f8d686eb7d64fba7f1f0185e0d1e1e11ffa1b964016c8f8460dc848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,399$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.54 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,174$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 446.56$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 301.69$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 301$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 197.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 147$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 139.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 86.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 69.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 61.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 33.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.