MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e85b0e839b17681c1c77c8e2ceede4fbc5d5c092e6e9b29008ea13f2b2e280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 13,219$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…7b9ebacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 3,444$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,600$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 2,517$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 2,220$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.27 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 2c | 2,051$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,813$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.53 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,537$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.98 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,495$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,076$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…c069backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 869.23$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 755.6$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 721.33$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 501.32$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 495$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 350.61$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 285$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 249$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 153.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 137.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…4fe4backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 133.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 127.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 120.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 119.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 101.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 47.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 47.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…9574backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 36.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 35.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 33.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.