MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6ba12431eebbd71a1ae76d0abfa12fd3730692957eb82e1c027e1a5b1528ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Washington Nationals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 4,188$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.51 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 3,639$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.29 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 2,259$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 1,643$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,464$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 1,329$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 697$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.89 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 566.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 358.02$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 325.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 238$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 231.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 218$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 189$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 181.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 169.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 148.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 136.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 128.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 119$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 90.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 80.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 72.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 72.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 48.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 45.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 36.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 35.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 34.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 33.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 28.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.