MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4374fb8f59b52d6d17b2f7a7737212dd266d618e68a7b2553b85c7ec2ada8135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 57c | 1,226$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.02 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,152$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.78 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed No | 71c | 746.06$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked No | 55c | 556$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 549.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed No | 57c | 460$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 43c | 365$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed Yes | 44c | 353.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.17 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 32c | 341.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 43c | 310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…e6e0backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 64c | 171$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 36c | 158$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 29c | 128.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 29c | 125.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 63c | 101.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 37c | 91.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 26c | 89.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 71c | 71.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 44c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…6783backed No | 69c | 54.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…0af7backed No | 57c | 40.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 66c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed No | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…2d8fbacked No | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 55c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 57c | 20.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.