Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Lucia Bronzetti vs Mary Stoiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a00826487b5afcfe4dd647c366a74cc8b4168690f3581ba6427d22fbb330731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bronzettiof Bronzetti, Stoiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Bronzetti | 49c | 14,555$7,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,429.14 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Stoiana | 51c | 6,343$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.92 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stoiana | 46c | 5,250$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stoiana | 51c | 4,093$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.5 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Bronzetti | 50c | 3,772$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.6 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bronzetti | 49c | 2,238$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.62 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Stoiana | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Stoiana | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Stoiana | 46c | 1,586$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bronzetti | 60c | 1,212$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.98 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Stoiana | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…86bebacked Bronzetti | 42c | 831.19$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.65 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Stoiana | 37c | 731.69$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.86 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Stoiana | 52c | 613.13$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.82 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bronzetti | 60c | 488$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bronzetti | 60c | 457.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Stoiana | 36c | 454.78$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stoiana | 30c | 392.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bronzetti | 49c | 360.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.2 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Stoiana | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bronzetti | 43c | 265$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.35 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Stoiana | 51c | 217.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Stoiana | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Stoiana | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Stoiana | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Stoiana | 53c | 189.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…b807backed Stoiana | 53c | 185.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stoiana | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Stoiana | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Stoiana | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Stoiana | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bronzetti | 50c | 77.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Bronzetti | 48c | 77.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Stoiana | 30c | 76.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Bronzetti | 48c | 62.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Stoiana | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Stoiana | 41c | 60.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Stoiana | 43c | 60.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Stoiana | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Bronzetti | 48c | 57.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Stoiana | 37c | 54.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…1406backed Bronzetti | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Stoiana | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bronzetti | 53c | 41.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Stoiana | 78c | 39.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Stoiana | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Stoiana | 46c | 35.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Bronzetti | 57c | 34.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Bronzetti | 60c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Stoiana | 71c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Bronzetti | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Stoiana | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…aad6backed Stoiana | 54c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.