Champions League · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa77283266d3ede1ae7a554fa1eafb092682f5c337db27d08c0d0fbe77032de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,657$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed Yes | 3c | 2,632$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 145 | 32.4%47 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 1,734$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.02 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 1,090$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…3657backed Yes | 3c | 974.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 919.53$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 702.6$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.51 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 574.52$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 490.21$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…f60cbacked Yes | 3c | 400.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 4c | 400.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…8fffbacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 318$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked Yes | 30c | 248.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 246.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 16c | 220.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…44d1backed Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 29c | 160.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 14c | 139.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 30c | 127.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…b50ebacked Yes | 29c | 125.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…2af5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…4678backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 16c | 86.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…7f05backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 82.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…1f7bbacked Yes | 32c | 82.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 24c | 78.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 60.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 48.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 71c | 39.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 71c | 38.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 33.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 71c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 71c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?this page
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-21?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-07-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.