NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aad31ef82784d1922cd785c7d362c0c3da97c2a23603ec401b19e2ad5b2d651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Under | 51c | 11,427$5,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,558.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,408$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 4,049$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.86 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 3,538$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 58c | 3,500$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 2,298$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Over | 7c | 710$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 583$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 524.21$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 406$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 253.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 48c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Under | 52c | 104.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 43.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…13f8backed Over | 47c | 38.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5a…0572backed Under | 55c | 38.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Kings won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.