NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa5e5aeaf5e13e2a6b185179c5d360202498e3dc02d32eb39e47122e074e6d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 5,155$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.4 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,501$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 2,510$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 48c | 2,058$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 2,020$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 610.19$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 49c | 610$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a010backed Under | 51c | 405.88$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 55.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…aa8dbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 239.5this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Kings won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.