NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f7f9d2a6b6c30581aea5c40096c67fec436ad5462e8dbde812d564622490d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 73,065$35,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,263.21 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 51c | 61,704$31,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,469 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 51c | 9,561$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…2b5dbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 6,528$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…f133backed Kings | 52c | 6,485$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…23d3backed Kings | 52c | 6,158$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…e35fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 6,108$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 51c | 5,363$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 50c | 4,680$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,578$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.17 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Kings | 53c | 1,536$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.17 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,251$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.43 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Kings | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Kings | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Kings | 52c | 659.99$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.2 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Kings | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 50c | 437.3$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.78 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Kings | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…5a11backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Kings | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 196.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kings | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 195$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…981dbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 139.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 136.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 50c | 132.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 120.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Kings | 52c | 111.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Kings | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 76.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Kings | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Kings | 51c | 56.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 55.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Kings | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 42.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Kings | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Kings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…05ecbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…2f3abacked Kings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 52c | 27.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e0dbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…6259backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Kings won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.