NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ecda249b2c067f47e0f52d74fb78cc99a75d9b638077402b60570009d5696c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Trail Blazers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kings | 57c | 6,883$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 6,030$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Trail Blazers | 69c | 4,563$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.17 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Kings | 47c | 3,396$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,254$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.74 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 30c | 2,002$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kings | 59c | 1,850$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.54 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,780$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Kings | 48c | 1,468$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.34 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 48c | 1,197$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Kings | 55c | 945.45$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.45 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Trail Blazers | 65c | 800$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.73 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kings | 38c | 789.47$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.99 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 52c | 725.11$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kings | 32c | 611.08$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.59 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Kings | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 550$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Kings | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kings | 30c | 515.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.8 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 363.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kings | 31c | 354.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.84 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 339.19$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 338$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 258.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Kings | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Kings | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 94.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Kings | 36c | 78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 64.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Kings | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Kings | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kings | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…6778backed Kings | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.